Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey^® (PMMS^®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.12 percent.

“The decline in mortgage rates has stalled due to a mix of escalating geopolitical tensions and a rebound in short-term rates that indicate the market’s enthusiasm on rate cuts was premature,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Zooming out to the bigger picture, mortgage rates have declined one and a half percentage points over the last 12 months, home price growth is slowing, inventory is increasing, and incomes continue to rise. As a result, the backdrop for homebuyers this fall is improving and should continue through the rest of the year.”

• The 30-year FRM averaged 6.12 percent as of October 3, 2024, up from last week when it averaged 6.08 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 7.49 percent.
• The 15-year FRM averaged 5.25 percent, up from last week when it averaged 5.16 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.78 percent.

The PMMS^® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit.

Recent headlines have been buzzing about the median asking price of homes dropping compared to last year, and that’s sparked plenty of confusion. And as a buyer or seller, it’s easy to assume that means prices are coming down. But here’s the catch: those numbers don’t tell the full story.

Nationally, home values are actually rising, even if the median price is down a bit. Let’s break down what’s really happening so you can make sense of the market without getting caught up in the fear the headlines create.

Homes on the Market Right Now Are Smaller

The biggest reason for the dip in median price is the size of homes being sold. The median price reflects the middle point of all the homes for sale at any given time. And that’ll be affected by the mix of homes on the market.

To show you how this works, here’s a simple explanation of a median (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median is now five cents.

In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change. The same is true for housing.

Right now, there’s a greater number of smaller, less expensive homes on the market, and that’s bringing the overall median price down. But that doesn’t mean home values are declining.

As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“The share of inventory of smaller and more affordable homes has grown, which helps hold down the median price even as per-square-foot prices grow further.”

And here’s the data to prove it.

Price Per Square Foot Is Still Rising

One of the best ways to measure home values is by looking at the price per square foot. That’s because it shows how much you’re paying for the space inside the home.

The median asking price doesn’t take into account the size of different homes, so it may not always reflect the true value. And the latest national price per square foot data shows home values are still increasing, even though the median asking price has dropped (see graph below).

As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“When a change in the mix of inventory toward smaller homes is accounted for, the typical home listed this year has increased in asking price compared with last year.”

This means that while smaller homes are affecting the median price, the average home’s value is still rising. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA):

“Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.”

So, while headlines may make it sound like prices are crashing, you don’t have to worry. With a closer look and more reliable data, you can see that prices are still climbing nationally.

But it’s important to remember that home prices can vary by region. While national trends provide a big-picture view, local markets may be experiencing different conditions. A trusted agent is the best resource to explain what’s happening in your area.

Bottom Line

The decrease in median price is not the same as a decrease in home values. The median asking price is down mostly due to the mix of smaller, less expensive homes on the market.

The important thing to focus on is the price per square foot, which is a better indicator of overall market value—and those prices are still going up. If you have questions about what home prices are doing in our area, feel free to reach out.

After months of sitting on the sidelines, many homebuyers who were priced out by high mortgage rates and affordability challenges finally have an opportunity to make their move. With rates trending down, today’s market is a sweet spot for buyers—and it’s one that may not last long.

So, if you’ve put your own move on the back burner, here’s why maybe you shouldn’t delay your plans any longer.

As you weigh your options and decide if you should buy now or wait, ask yourself this: What do you think everyone else is going to do?

The truth is, if mortgage rates continue to ease, as experts project, more buyers will jump back into the market. A survey from Bankrate shows over half of homeowners would be motivated to buy this year if rates drop below 6% (see graph below):

With rates already in the low 6% range, we’re not terribly far off from hitting that threshold. The bottom line is, that when they drop into the 5s, the number of buyers in the market is going to go up – and that means more competition for you.

That increased demand will likely push home prices up, which could potentially take away from some of the benefits you’d gain from a slightly lower interest rate. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Real Estate Research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“The downside of increased demand is that it puts upward pressure on home prices as multiple buyers compete for a limited number of homes. In markets with ongoing housing shortages, this price increase can offset some of the affordability gains from lower mortgage rates.”

So, while waiting to buy may seem like a smart move, it could backfire if rising prices outpace your savings from slightly lower rates.

What This Means for You

Right now, you’ve got the chance to get ahead of all of that. Today’s market is a buyer sweet spot. Why? Because a lot of other buyers are waiting – which means not as many people are actively looking for homes. That means less competition for you.

At the same time, affordability has already improved quite a bit. Recent easing in mortgage rates has made homeownership more accessible. As Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Research, says:

“Mortgage payments on the typical-price home are 7% lower than last year and are 13% lower than the peak in May 2024.”

And while the supply of homes for sale is still low, it’s also higher than it’s been in years. According to Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com:

“The number of homes actively for sale continues to be elevated compared with last year, growing by 35.8%, a 10th straight month of growth, and now sits at the highest since May 2020.”

This means you now have more options to choose from than you’ve had in quite a while.

With fewer buyers in the market, improving affordability, and more homes to choose from, you have the chance to find the right one before the competition heats up.

Why Waiting Could Cost You

If you’re waiting for the perfect time to buy, it’s important to understand that timing the market is nearly impossible. The longer you wait, the higher the risk that market conditions will shift—and not necessarily in your favor. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:

“It’s one of those things where you should be careful what you wish for. A further drop in mortgage rates could bring a surge of demand that makes it tougher to actually buy a house.”

Bottom Line

Don’t wait until you have to deal with more competition and higher prices – you already have the chance to buy a home while we’re in the sweet spot today. Let’s connect to make sure you’re taking advantage of it.

Buying Beats Renting in 22 Major U.S. Cities

That’s right—according to a recent study from Zillow, in 22 of the 50 largest metro areas, monthly mortgage payments are now lower than rent payments (see chart below):

As mortgage rates have eased off their recent peak, home prices have moderated, and inventory has ticked up, affordability has improved significantly. When you add all of that up, it’s getting less expensive to buy a home than to rent one in many parts of the country.

This is a big deal if you’ve been renting for a while now. But if you don’t see your city on this list, don’t sweat it. Things are moving fast, and your area might be joining these top metros soon.

You see, talking with a local real estate agent about what’s happening in your market before this happens in your ideal neighborhood could really change the game for you. It’s all about being informed by a true expert, and understanding what was out of reach before might actually be getting more affordable than you think.

Now, while this study compares monthly rent to principal and interest on a mortgage payment (not the whole monthly payment), let’s think through this. As Zillow notes, what you can’t ignore when you buy a home are things like taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance that should also be factored into your budget and your monthly payment.

But remember – renters pay extra fees too, like renters’ insurance, utilities, parking, and more. And while doing the math may feel like a drag, this equation could be a much more exciting one to work through today.

So, grab your calculator and your agent because the big takeaway is this: it may be time to determine if you’re in a spot to afford what you couldn’t just a few months ago.

As Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:

“… for those who can make it work, homeownership may come with lower monthly costs and the ability to build long-term wealth in the form of home equity — something you lose out on as a renter. With mortgage rates dropping, it’s a great time to see how your affordability has changed and if it makes more sense to buy than rent.”

Whether you live in one of these budget-friendly metros where the scales have already tipped in your favor, or any town in-between, it’s time to connect with a local real estate agent to get the conversation started.

With mortgage rates coming down and more homes hitting the market, you’ll want to be ready to jump back into your search – before everyone else does.

Bottom Line

If you’re tired of renting and ready to find out what it takes to purchase a home in our area now that the landscape may be shifting, let’s do the math together to see if buying a home makes sense for you now or sometime soon.

When it’s time to buy or sell a home, one of the most important decisions you’ll make is who you’ll work with as your agent. That choice will have an impact on your entire experience and how smoothly it goes.

As you figure out who you’ll partner with, it’s important to know what to expect and what to look for. Unfortunately, there may be some myths holding you back from making the best decision possible. So, let’s take some time to address those, and make sure you have the information you need to find the right agent for you.

Myth #1: All Real Estate Agents Are the Same

You might think all agents are the same – so it doesn’t matter who you work with. But, in reality, agents have varying levels of experience, specialties, and market knowledge, which can have a big impact on your results. For example: you’ll get much better service and advice from someone who is a true expert in their field. As Business Insider explains:

“If you were planning to get your hair done for a special event, you’d want to visit a stylist who specifically has experience doing that type of work — you wouldn’t make an appointment with someone who primarily does kids’ hair. The same concept applies to finding a real estate agent. If you have a smaller budget, you probably don’t want to work with an agent who exclusively sells multimillion-dollar properties.”

Take some time to talk with each agent you’re considering. Ask about their experience level and what they specialize in. This will help you find the one that’s the best fit for your search.

Myth #2: You Can Save Money by Not Using an Agent

As a seller, you may think you can save money by not working with a pro. However, the expertise, negotiation skills, and market knowledge an agent provides generally saves you money and helps you avoid making costly mistakes. Without that guidance, you could find yourself doing something like overpricing your house. And that’s a misstep that’ll cost you when it sits on the market for far too long. That’s why U.S. News Real Estate says:

“When it comes to buying or selling your home, hiring a professional to guide you through the process can save you money and headaches. It pays to have someone on your side who’s well-versed in the nuances of the market and can help ensure you get the best possible deal.”

Myth #3: Agents Will Push You To Spend More

You may also be worried an agent will push you to buy a more expensive house in order to increase their commission. But that’s not how that should go. A good agent will respect your budget and work hard to find a home that truly fits your financial situation and needs. With their market know-how, they’ll point you toward the best option for you, rather than try to pad their own pockets on your dime. As NerdWallet explains:

“Among other things, a good buyer’s agent will find homes for sale. A buyer’s agent will help you understand the type of home you can afford in the current market, find listed homes that match your needs and price range, and then help you narrow the options to the properties worth considering.”

Myth #4: Market Conditions Are the Same Everywhere, So Why Do I Need a Pro?

Maybe you believe housing market conditions are the same no matter where you are. But that couldn’t be further from the truth. Real estate markets are highly localized, and conditions can vary widely from one area to another. This is why you can’t pick just anyone you find online. You should choose an agent who’s an expert on your specific local market. As a recent article from Bankrate says:

“Real estate is very localized, and you want someone who’s extremely knowledgeable about the market in your specific area.”

You’ll know you’ve found the right person when they can explain the national trends and how your area stacks up too. That way you’re guaranteed to get the full picture when you ask: “how’s the market?”

Bottom Line

Don’t let myths keep you from the expert guidance you deserve. With market knowledge and top resources, a trusted local real estate agent isn’t just helpful, they’re invaluable.

In what could be one of the biggest financial decisions of your life, having the right pro by your side is a game changer. Let’s connect and make sure you get the best outcome possible.