All • November 22, 2023

Mortgage Rate Slide

by Rodney Ward

Freddie Mac today (11-22-2023) released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey ^® (PMMS^®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 7.29 percent. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Thanksgiving.

“Mortgage rates continued to decrease heading into the Thanksgiving holiday,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “In recent weeks, rates have dropped by half a percent, but potential homebuyers continue to hold out for lower rates and more inventory. This dynamic is reflected in the latest data showing that existing home sales have fallen to a thirteen-year low.”

The 30-year FRM averaged 7.29 percent as of November 22, 2023, down from last week when it averaged 7.44 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.58 percent.
The 15-year FRM averaged 6.67 percent, down from last week when it averaged 6.76 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.9 percent.

The PMMS^® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit.

All • Buying • Selling • November 22, 2023

Home Prices Still Growing – Just at a More Normal Pace

by Rodney Ward

Home Prices Still Growing – Just at a More Normal Pace

If you’re feeling a bit muddy on what’s happening with home prices, that’s no surprise. Some people are still saying prices are falling, even though data proves otherwise. Part of that misconception is because people are getting their information from unreliable sources. But it’s also coming from some media coverage misrepresenting what the data really shows.

So, to keep things simple, here’s what you really need to know using real data you can trust.

Normal Home Price Seasonality Explained

In the housing market, there are predictable ebbs and flows that happen each year. It’s called seasonality. Spring is the peak homebuying season when the market is most active. That activity is typically still strong in the summer but begins to wane as the cooler months approach.

Home prices follow along with seasonality because prices appreciate most when something is in high demand. That’s why there’s a reliable long-term home price trend. The graph below uses data from Case-Shiller to show the typical percent change for monthly home price movement from 1973 through 2022 (not adjusted, so you can see the seasonality):

As the data shows, at the beginning of the year, home prices grow, but not as much as they do when entering the spring and summer markets. That’s because the market is less active in January and February since fewer people move in the cooler months. As the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up, and home prices go up a lot more in response. Then, as fall and winter approach, prices still grow, just at a slower pace as activity eases again.

This Year, Seasonality Has Returned

Now, let’s look at how this year compares to that long-term trend (see graph below):

Here’s the latest data for this year from that same source. Just like before, the dark bars are the long-standing trend. The green bars represent what’s happened this year. As you can see, the green bars are beginning to fall in line with what’s normal for the market. That’s a good thing because it’s more sustainable price growth than we’ve seen in recent years.

In a nutshell, nationally prices aren’t falling, it’s just that price growth is beginning to normalize. Moving forward, there’s a chance the media will misrepresent this slowing of home price growth as prices falling. So don’t believe everything you see in the headlines. The data included here gives you the context you need to really understand what’s happening. So, if you see something in the headlines that’s confusing, don’t just take it at face value. Ask a trusted real estate professional for more information.

Remember, it’s normal to see home price growth slow down as the year goes on. And that definitely doesn’t mean home prices are falling. They’re just rising at a more moderate pace.

Bottom Line

Home price appreciation is returning to normal seasonality and that’s a good thing. If you have questions about what’s happening with prices in our local area, let’s connect.

Selling • November 20, 2023

Is Your House the Top Thing on a Buyer’s Wish List?

by Rodney Ward

This time every year, homeowners who are planning to move have a decision to make: sell now or wait until after the holidays? Some sellers with homes already on the market may even remove their listing until the new year.

But the truth is, many buyers want to purchase a home for the holidays, and your house might be just what they’re looking for. As an article from Fortune Builders explains:

“ . . . while a majority of people take a step back from the real estate market during the holiday months, you may find when the temperature drops, your potential for a great real estate deal starts to rise.”

To help prove that point, here are four reasons you shouldn’t wait to sell your house.

1. The desire to own a home doesn’t stop during the holidays. While a few buyers might opt to delay their moving plans until January, others may need to move now because something in their life has changed. The buyers who look for homes at this time of year are usually motivated to make their move happen and are eager to buy. A recent article from Investopedia says:

“Anyone shopping for a new home between Thanksgiving and New Year’s is likely going to be a serious buyer. Putting your home on the market at this time of year and attracting a serious buyer can often result in a quicker sale.”

2. While the supply of homes for sale has increased a little bit lately, overall inventory is still lower than it was before the pandemic. What does that mean for you? If you work with an agent to price your house at market value, it could still sell quickly because today’s buyers are craving more options – and your home may be exactly what they’re searching for.

3. You can determine the days and times that are most convenient for you for home showings. That can help you minimize disruptions to your own schedule, which can be especially important during this busy time of year. Plus, you may find buyers are more flexible on when they’ll tour a house this time of year because they have more time off from work around the holidays.

4. And finally, homes decorated for the holidays appeal to many buyers. For those buyers, it’s easy to picture gathering with their loved ones in the home and making memories of their own. An article on selling at this time of year offers this advice:

“If you’re selling around a holiday and have decorations up, make sure they accent—not overpower—a room. Less is more.”

Bottom Line

There are plenty of good reasons to put your house on the market during the holiday season. Let’s chat and see if it’s the right time for you to sell.

All • Buying • Selling • November 17, 2023

2024 Housing Market Forecast

by Rodney Ward

Some Highlights

Thinking of buying or selling a house and wondering what the new year holds for the housing market? Experts forecast home prices to end this year up 2.8% and to rise another 1.5% in 2024. And climbing prices help make homeownership a good investment.
Plus, home sales are projected to increase in 2024. That’s good news because it means experts are forecasting more activity as people continue to move.
If you’re planning to buy or sell, it’s helpful to know what experts project for the housing market. Let’s connect to talk about the latest forecasts and craft a plan together.

Videos • November 16, 2023

Changes in Seasons and Home Prices

by Rodney Ward

All • November 16, 2023

Three Week Downward Trent In Mortgage Rates

by Rodney Ward

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey^® (PMMS^®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 7.44 percent.

“For the third straight week, mortgage rates trended down, as new data indicates that inflationary pressures are receding,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The combination of continued economic strength, lower inflation and lower mortgage rates should likely bring more potential homebuyers into the market.”

30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.44 percent as of November 16, 2023, down from last week when it averaged 7.5 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.61 percent.
15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.76 percent, down from last week when it averaged 6.81 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.98 percent.

The PMMS^® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit.

NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz had this to say about today’s mortgage interest rate news.

Mortgage interest rates are showing signs of relief for home buyers. They have now dropped to 7.44% from 7.5% the week prior. The three-week drop is a steady sign we likely have hit a peak and are headed south for mortgage rates, especially as the 10-year treasury continues its fall from a peak of 5% to 4.4% today.

Late fall and early winter are typically slower home sales months, as home buyers generally do not want to uproot their family in the middle of the school year, and shopping for a home in the snow may not be an attractive option. However, as rates continue the expected decline, this might be a calmer season to home shop before rates fall into the 6% range in spring and pent-up demand floods into the market.

For now, as Pitbull says, “It’s going down, I’m yelling Timber.”

Dr. Jessica Lautz is the Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research at the National Association of REALTORS®.

Videos • November 16, 2023

Do You See It?

by Rodney Ward

All • Buying • Selling • November 16, 2023

People Are Still Moving

by Rodney Ward

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you might have heard that it’s tough right now because mortgage rates are higher than they’ve been over the past few years, and home prices are rising. That much is true. Take a look at the graph below. It breaks down how the current affordability situation stacks up to recent years.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains how to read the values on the graph:

“To interpret the indices, a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home.”

The black dotted line represents that 100 value on the index. Essentially, the higher the bar, the more affordable homes are. As you can see, the orange bar for today shows higher mortgage rates and home prices have created a clear challenge. But, while affordability is definitely tighter right now, that doesn’t mean the housing market is at a standstill.

According to NAR, based on the pace of sales right now, just under 4 million homes will sell this year. With some simple math, let’s break down what that really means for you:

3.96 million homes divided by 365 days in a year = 10,849 houses sell each day
10,849 divided by 24 hours in a day = 452 houses sell per hour
452 divided by 60 minutes in an hour = about 8 houses sell each minute

So, on average, over 10,000 homes sell each day in this country. Whether you’re a buyer or a seller, this goes to show there are still ways to make your move possible, even at a time when affordability is tight.

An Agent Can Help You Make Your Move a Reality

You may be wondering how other homebuyers and sellers are making this happen now. One of the biggest game-changers in today’s market is working with a trusted local real estate agent. Great agents are helping other people just like you navigate today’s market and the current affordability situation, and their insight is invaluable right now.

True professionals will be able to offer advice tailored to your specific wants, needs, budget, and more. Not to mention, they’ll also be able to draw on their experience of what’s working for other buyers and sellers right now. This could mean broadening your search, if needed, to include other housing types like condos, townhouses, or neighborhoods a bit further out to help offset some of the affordability challenges today.

Bottom Line

You might think there aren’t many people buying or selling homes right now since affordability is tighter than it’s been in quite some time, but that’s not the case. It’s true that buying a home has become more expensive over the past couple of years, but people are still moving.

If you’re hoping to buy or sell a home today, know that other people are still making their goals a reality – and that’s happening in large part because of the help and advice of skilled local real estate agents. Want to talk to a trusted professional about your own move? Let’s connect.

All • Buying • Selling • November 15, 2023

The Latest 2024 Housing Market Forecast

by Rodney Ward

The new year is right around the corner, and you might be wondering if 2024 will be the right time to buy or sell a home. If you want to make the most informed decision possible, it’s important to know what the experts have to say about what’s ahead for the housing market. Spoiler alert: the projections may be better than you think. Here’s why.

Experts Forecast Ongoing Home Price Appreciation

Take a look at the latest home price forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

As you can see in the orange bars on the left, on average, experts forecast prices will end this year up about 2.8% overall, and increase by another 1.5% by the end of 2024. That’s big news, considering so many people thought prices would crash this year. The truth is, prices didn’t come tumbling way down in 2023, and that’s because there just weren’t enough homes for sale compared to the number of people who wanted or needed to buy them, and that inventory crunch is still very real. This is the general rule of supply and demand, and it continues to put upward pressure on prices as we move into the new year.

Looking forward, experts project home prices will continue to rise next year, but not quite as much as they did this year. Even though the expected rise in 2024 isn’t as big as in 2023, it’s important to understand home price appreciation is cumulative. In simpler terms, this means if the experts are right, according to the national average, after your home’s value goes up by 2.8% this year, it should go up by another 1.5% next year. That ongoing price growth is a big part of why owning a home can be a smart decision in the long run.

Projections Show Sales Should Increase Slightly Next Year

While 2023 hasn’t seen a lot of home sales relative to more normal years in the housing market, experts are forecasting a bit more activity next year. Here’s what those same three organizations project for the rest of this year, and in 2024 (see graph below):

While expectations are for just a slight uptick in total sales, improved activity next year is a good thing for the housing market, and for buyers and sellers like you. As people continue to move, that opens up options for hopeful buyers who are looking for a home.

So, what do these forecasts show? The housing market is expected to be more active in 2024. That may be in part because there will always be people who need to move. People will get new jobs, have children, get married or divorced – these and other major life changes lead people to move regardless of housing market conditions. That will remain true next year, and for years to come. And if mortgage rates come down, we’ll see even more activity in the housing market.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, it’s important to know what the experts are forecasting for the future of the housing market. When you’re in the know about what’s ahead, you can make the most informed decision possible. Let’s chat about the latest forecasts together, and craft a plan for your next move.

All • Buying • Selling • November 13, 2023

Life-Changing Events That Move the Housing Market

by Rodney Ward

Life is a journey filled with unexpected twists and turns, like the excitement of welcoming a new addition, retiring and starting a new adventure, or the bittersweet feeling of an empty nest. If something like this is changing in your own life, you may be considering buying or selling a house. That’s because through all these life-altering events, there is one common thread—the need to move.

Reasons People Still Need To Move Today

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) there have been a lot of this type of milestone or life change over the last two years (see graph below):

And, these big life changes are going to continue to impact people moving forward, even with the current affordability challenges brought on by higher mortgage rates and rising home prices.

As Claire Trapasso, Executive News Editor at Realtor.com, says:

“Because high mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and stubbornly low inventory make today’s housing market particularly challenging, many of today’s buyers are motivated by life changes, such as growing families, supporting elderly parents or grown children, or accommodating professional needs. . .”

Lean On a Real Estate Professional for Help

Whether you’re beginning your search for a home or preparing to sell your current house, you don’t have to go it alone. With their expertise, a real estate agent is an invaluable partner who can help you smoothly transition through these big moments in your life. Here are just a few examples.

When Buying a Home

If you’re welcoming a new addition and want more space, the need for a new home may be a top priority. While higher home prices and mortgage rates are creating challenges for buyers, you may have to find a way to meet your changing needs, even with today’s mortgage rates.

A skilled real estate agent can help. Their expertise and knowledge of the local housing market can save you a considerable amount of time and stress. An agent will take the time to understand your specific needs, budget, and preferences, allowing them to narrow down your search and present you with suitable options.

When Selling a House

If you’re retiring or going through a separation or divorce, your main focus may be to make the most out of your investment when selling your house, so you can find one that works better for you moving forward.

This is another place where a real estate agent’s expertise truly shines. They can accurately assess your home’s market value, suggest improvements to enhance its appeal, and craft a strategic marketing plan. Their negotiation skills are a big asset when it comes to making sure you get a fair price for your house, allowing you to move on to the next chapter of your life with confidence and peace of mind.

No matter your situation, lean on a trusted professional for help as you buy or sell a home.

Bottom Line

If recent life-changing events have you wanting or needing to move, let’s connect.

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