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What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?
What Mortgage Rate Are You Waiting For?
You won’t find anyone who’s going to argue that mortgage rates have had a big impact on housing affordability over the past couple of years. But there is hope on the horizon. Rates have actually started to come down. And, recently they hit the lowest point we’ve seen in 2024, according to Freddie Mac (see graph below):
And if you’re thinking about buying a home, that may leave you wondering: how much lower are they going to go? Here’s some information that can help you know what to expect.
Expert Projections for Mortgage Rates
Experts say the overall downward trend should continue as long as inflation and the economy keeps cooling. But as new reports come out on those key indicators, there’s going to be some volatility here and there.
What you need to remember is it’s not wise to let those blips distract you from the larger trend. Rates are still down roughly a full percentage point from the recent peak compared to May.
And the general consensus is that rates in the low 6s are possible in the months ahead, it just depends on what happens with the economy and what the Federal Reserve decides to do moving forward.
Most experts are already starting to revise their 2024 mortgage rate forecasts to be more optimistic that lower rates are ahead. For example, Realtor.com says:
“Mortgage rates have been revised slightly lower as signals from the economy suggest that it will be appropriate for the Fed to begin to cut its Federal Funds rate in 2024. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is down to 6.7%, and we revised our year-end forecast to 6.3% from 6.5%.”
Know Your Number for Mortgage Rates
So, what does this mean for you and your plans to move? If you’ve been holding out and waiting for rates to come down, know that it’s already happening. You just have to decide, based on the expert projections and your own budget, when you’ll be willing to jump back in. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says:
“The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move.”
As a next step, ask yourself this: what number do I want to see rates hit before I’m ready to move?
Maybe it’s 6.25%. Maybe it’s 6.0%. Or maybe it’s once they hit 5.99%. The exact percentage where you feel comfortable kicking off your search again is personal. Once you have that number in mind, you don’t need to follow rates yourself and wait for it to become a reality.
Instead, connect with a local real estate professional. They’ll help you stay up to date on what’s happening and have a conversation about when to make your move. And once rates hit your target, they’ll be the first to let you know.
Bottom Line
If you’ve put your moving plans on hold because of higher mortgage rates, think about the number you want to see rates hit that would make you re-enter the market.
Once you have that number in mind, let’s connect so you have someone on your side to let you know when we get there.
Today’s Biggest Housing Market Myths
Have you ever heard the phrase: don’t believe everything you hear? That’s especially true if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in today’s housing market. There’s a lot of misinformation out there. And right now, making sure you have someone you can go to for trustworthy information is extra important.
If you partner with a real estate agent, they can clear up some common misconceptions and reassure you by backing them up with research-driven facts. Here are just a few misconceptions they can help disprove.
1. I’ll Get a Better Deal Once Prices Crash
If you’ve heard home prices are going to come crashing down, it’s time to look at what’s actually happening. While prices vary by local market, there’s a lot of data out there from numerous sources that shows a crash is not going to happen. Back in 2008, there was a dramatic oversupply of homes that led to prices crashing. Across the board, there’s an undersupply of homes for sale today. That makes this market a whole different scenario (see chart below):
So, if you think waiting will score you a deal, know that data shows there’s not a crash on the horizon, and waiting isn’t going to pay off the way you’d hoped.
2. I Won’t Be Able To Find Anything To Buy
If this nagging fear about finding the right home if you move is still holding you back, you probably haven’t talked with an expert real estate agent lately. Throughout the year, the supply of homes for sale has grown. Data from Realtor.com helps put this into context. While there are still fewer homes on the market than in a more normal year like 2019, inventory is still above where it was at this time last year (see graph below):
So, if you’re remembering all that media coverage about record-low supply during the pandemic, you can rest a bit easier. While the market isn’t back to normal just yet, inventory is moving in a healthier direction. And that means as your options improve, you can let go of this now outdated myth because finding a home to buy won’t feel quite so impossible anymore.
3. I Have To Wait Until I Have Enough for a 20% Down Payment
Many people still believe you need a 20% down payment to buy a home. To show just how widespread this myth is, Fannie Mae says:
“Approximately 90% of consumers overstate or don’t know the minimum required down payment for a typical mortgage.”
And if you look at the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you can see the typical homeowner isn’t putting down as much as you might expect (see graph below):
First-time homebuyers are typically only putting down 6%. That’s far less than the 20% so many people think they need. And if you’re looking at that graph and you’re more focused on how the number for repeat buyers is closer to 20%, here’s what you need to realize. That’s only because they have so much equity built up in their current house that can be used to make a larger down payment for their next move.
This goes to show you don’t have to put 20% down, unless it’s specified by your loan type or lender. Many people put down a lot less. Not to mention, depending on the type of home loan you get, you may only need to put 3.5% or even 0% down. So, if you’re buying your first home, you likely don’t need nearly as much for your down payment as you may think.
An Agent’s Role in Fighting Misconceptions
If you put your move on pause because you heard one or more of these myths yourself, it’s time to talk to a trusted agent. An expert agent has more data and the facts, just like this, to reassure you and help break through any misconceptions that may be holding you back.
Bottom Line
If you have questions about what you’re hearing or reading, let’s connect. You deserve to have someone you can trust to get the facts.
The Number One Mistake Sellers Are Making
Overpricing Their House
In today’s housing market, many sellers are making a critical mistake: overpricing their houses. This common error can lead to a home sitting on the market for a long time without any offers. And when that happens, the homeowner may have to drop their asking price to try to re-ignite buyer interest.
Data from Realtor.com shows the number of homeowners realizing this mistake and doing a price reduction is climbing (see graph below):
If you’re thinking about making a move yourself, here’s what you need to know. The best way to avoid making a costly mistake is to work with a trusted real estate agent to find the right price. Here’s a look at what’s at stake if you don’t.
Not Paying Attention To Current Market Conditions
Understanding current market conditions is key to accurate pricing. You don’t want to set your asking price based on what happened during the pandemic. The market has moderated a lot since then, so it’s far better to align your price with today’s reality.
Real estate agents stay updated on market trends and how they impact the pricing strategy for your house.
Pricing It Based on What You Want To Make (Not What It’s Worth)
Another misstep is pricing it based on what you want to make on the sale, and not necessarily current market value. You may see other homes in your neighborhood selling for top dollar and assume yours can do the same. But you may not be considering differences in size, condition, and features. For example, maybe that other house is waterfront or has a finished basement. To sum it up, Bankrate explains:
“How do you find that sweet spot of pricing for profit but not overpricing? The expertise of your agent can be truly valuable here. A knowledgeable agent will understand fair market value in your area, how much your house is worth and how much you might reasonably expect to get for it in the current market.”
An agent will do a comparative market analysis (CMA) to make sure your house is compared with truly similar properties to get an accurate look at how it should be priced.
Pricing High to Leave Room for Negotiation
Another common, yet misguided strategy is to price your house high on purpose, so you have more room to negotiate down during the sale. But this can backfire. A price that seems too high often deters potential buyers from even considering the home. So rather than leaving room for negotiation, what you’ll actually be doing is turning buyers away. U.S. News Real Estate explains:
“You want to sell your house for top dollar, but be realistic about the value of the property and how buyers will see it. If you’ve overpriced your home, chances are you’ll eventually need to lower the number, but the peak period of activity that a new listing experiences is already gone.”
An agent can help you set a fair price that attracts buyers and encourages more competitive offers.
Bottom Line
Overpricing your home can have serious consequences. A knowledgeable real estate agent brings an objective perspective, in-depth market knowledge, and a strategic approach to pricing.
Let’s connect so you can avoid making a pricing mistake that’ll cost you.
Can Mortgage Rate Changes Impact Your Homebuying Power?
If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you’ve probably got mortgage rates on your mind. That’s because you’ve likely heard that mortgage rates impact how much you can afford in your monthly mortgage payment, and you want to factor that into your planning. Here’s what you need to know.
What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates?
Mortgage rates have been trending down recently. While that’s good news for your homebuying plans, it’s important to know that rates can be unpredictable because they’re affected by many factors.
Things like the economy, job market, inflation, and decisions made by the Federal Reserve all play a part. So, even as rates go down, they can still bounce around a bit based on new economic data. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:
“The ongoing deceleration in inflation, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s recent indication of potential rate cuts [in 2024], suggests an environment supportive of modest declines in mortgage rates. Barring any unforeseen circumstances and resurgence in inflation, lower mortgage rates could be on the horizon, but the journey towards them might be slow and bumpy.”
How Do These Changes Affect You?
When mortgage rates change, it affects how much you pay each month for your home loan. Even a small rate change can make a big difference to your monthly bill.
Take a look at the chart below to see how different mortgage rates impact your house payment each month for various loan amounts. Imagine you can afford a monthly payment of $2,600 for your home loan. The green part in the chart shows payments in that range or lower based on varying mortgage rates (see chart below):
Understanding how mortgage rates impact your payment helps you make better decisions.
How Can You Keep Track of the Latest on Rates?
Real estate agents have the expertise to help you understand what’s happening and what it means for you. They can provide tools and visuals, like the chart above, to show how rate changes impact your buying power.
You don’t need to be a mortgage expert; you just need a professional by your side. Someone who can help you make sense of the market and guide you through your homebuying or selling journey.
Bottom Line
If you have questions about the housing market, let’s connect. That way you’ll understand what’s going on and how to navigate it.
What Credit Score Do You Really Need To Buy a House?
When you’re thinking about buying a home, your credit score is one of the biggest pieces of the puzzle. Think of it like your financial report card that lenders look at when trying to figure out if you qualify, and which home loan will work best for you. As the Mortgage Report says:
“Good credit scores communicate to lenders that you have a track record for properly managing your debts. For this reason, the higher your score, the better your chances of qualifying for a mortgage.”
The trouble is most buyers overestimate the minimum credit score they need to buy a home. According to a report from Fannie Mae, only 32% of consumers have a good idea of what lenders require. That means nearly 2 out of every 3 people don’t.
So, here’s a general ballpark to give you a rough idea. Experian says:
“The minimum credit score needed to buy a house can range from 500 to 700, but will ultimately depend on the type of mortgage loan you’re applying for and your lender. Most lenders require a minimum credit score of 620 to buy a house with a conventional mortgage.”
Basically, it varies. So, even if your credit isn’t perfect, there are still options out there. FICO explains:
“While many lenders use credit scores like FICO Scores to help them make lending decisions, each lender has its own strategy, including the level of risk it finds acceptable. There is no single “cutoff score” used by all lenders, and there are many additional factors that lenders may use . . .”
And if your credit score needs a little TLC, don’t worry—Experian says there are some easy steps you can take to give it a boost, including:
1. Pay Your Bills on Time
Lenders want to see that you can reliably pay your bills on time. This includes everything from credit cards to utilities and cell phone bills. Consistent, on-time payments show you’re a responsible borrower.
2. Pay Off Outstanding Debt
Paying down what you owe can help lower your overall debt and make you less of a risk to lenders. Plus, it improves your credit utilization ratio (how much credit you’re using compared to your total limit). A lower ratio means you’re more reliable to lenders.
3. Don’t Apply for Too Much Credit
While it might be tempting to open more credit cards to build your score, it’s best to hold off. Too many new credit applications can lead to hard inquiries on your report, which can temporarily lower your score.
Bottom Line
Your credit score is crucial when buying a home. Even if your score isn’t perfect, there are still pathways to homeownership.
Working with a trusted lender is the best way to get more information on how your credit score could factor into your home loan.
Are There More Homes for Sale?
One of the biggest bright spots in today’s housing market is how much the supply of homes for sale has grown since the beginning of this year.
Recent data from Realtor.com shows that nationally, there are 36.6% more homes actively for sale now compared to the same time last year. That’s a significant improvement. It gives you far more options for your move than you would’ve had just a year ago. And with supply improving, you’re also regaining a bit of negotiation power. So, if you’re someone who thought about buying a home over the last few years but was discouraged by how limited inventory was, this should be welcome news.
As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“Increased housing supply spells good news for consumers who want to see more properties before making purchasing decisions.”
But just so you have perspective, even though inventory has grown, that doesn’t mean we’ve suddenly flipped to an oversupply of homes on the market. There are nowhere near enough homes for sale to make prices crash. If you compare today’s inventory levels to more normal, pre-pandemic numbers (2017–2019), there are still roughly 29% fewer homes actively for sale now (see graph below):
So, while we’re up by almost 37% year-over-year, we’re still not back to how much inventory there’d be in a normal market.
As Bill McBride, Housing Analyst for Calculated Risk, explains:
“ . . . currently inventory is increasing year-over-year but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.”
But that’s okay. It’s to be expected. As a country, it’ll take a while to get back to the typical level of homes for sale. And the good news for buyers is, in some select markets, it’s closer to being a reality.
Here’s a rundown of what today’s inventory growth looks like by region (see graph below):
Real estate will always be hyper-local. If you want to find out what inventory numbers look like where you live, reach out to a local agent. They’ll be able to tell you what they’re seeing and how it stacks up to the national market. You may find you have even more opportunity to move where you are.
Bottom Line
The supply of homes across the country is improving in a big way. As a buyer, that gives you more options for your home search, and ultimately, a better chance of finding what you like.
So, what are you looking for in a home? And what’s your budget? Let’s go over that together to find the options that may be right for you.
Mortgage Rates Like These Not Seen In A Year
Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® for the week ending August 8, 2024, showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.47 percent.
“Mortgage rates plunged this week to their lowest level in over a year following the likely overreaction to a less than favorable employment report and financial market turbulence for an economy that remains on solid footing,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “The decline in mortgage rates does increase prospective homebuyers’ purchasing power and should begin to pique their interest in making a move. Additionally, this drop in rates is already providing some existing homeowners the opportunity to refinance, with the refinance share of market mortgage applications reaching nearly 42 percent, the highest since March 2022.”
- The 30-year FRM averaged 6.47 percent as of August 8, 2024, down from last week when it averaged 6.73 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.96 percent.
- The 15-year FRM averaged 5.63 percent, down from last week when it averaged 5.99 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.34 percent.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit.
Where Will You Live After You Sell?
If you’re planning to sell your house and move, you probably know there’s been a shortage of options available. But here’s the good news: the supply of homes for sale has grown in a lot of markets this year – and that’s not just existing, or previously-owned, homes. It’s true for newly built homes too.
So how do you decide which route to go? Do you buy an existing home or a brand-new one? The choice is yours – you just need to figure out what’s most important to you.
Perks of a Newly Built Home
Here are some benefits of buying a newly built home right now:
- Have brand new everything with never-been-used appliances and materials
- Use energy efficient options to save money and leave a smaller footprint
- Minimize the need for repairs and benefit from builder warranties
- Take advantage of builder concessions that can help with affordability
In today’s market, a lot of builders are focusing on selling their current inventory before they add more homes to their mix. And some of them are offering concessions and are more willing to negotiate to make a sale happen.
That, coupled with the fact builders are primarily building smaller, more affordable homes, has led to one other potential perk. The median price for a newly built home in today’s market is actually lower than the median price of an existing home – which isn’t usually the case. Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, shares:
“Homebuyers who are looking for that ‘new-home smell’ may be in a relatively friendlier market than times past when new homes were considerably more expensive than used ones.”
If you’re interested in seeing what builders nearby have to offer, lean on your real estate agent. Their knowledge of local builders, new communities, and builder contracts will be important in this process.
Perks of an Existing Home
Now, let’s compare that to the benefits of buying an existing home.
- Join an established neighborhood that you can get a feel for before moving in
- Choose from a wider variety of floorplans and styles
- Appreciate the lived-in charm that only an older home can provide
- Enjoy the privacy and curb appeal of mature trees and landscaping
In addition to these lifestyle benefits, there’s strategic value to buying an existing home, too. Remember, you can always make upgrades to an existing home down the road to give it some of the latest features available. This gives you the best of both worlds: you’ll get the charm, the neighborhood, and over time, you can still add those on-trend elements you may see in a brand-new home. And if you do, you’ll likely increase the home’s value too. An article from LendingTree explains:
“. . . they can personalize it and possibly increase its potential resale value with cosmetic upgrades . . . Plus, if a home comes with physical details or stories that add charm, in some cases, these elements are attractive enough to add to a home’s resale value . . .”
Want to see what’s available? Your real estate agent can show you what homes are for sale in your area, so you can see if there’s one that works for you and your needs.
Bottom Line
There are a lot of factors that go into deciding whether to buy an existing home or a newly built one after you sell, but it’s essential in today’s market to understand the opportunities you can find in both. Let’s connect so you have expert guidance as you explore the options in our area.
