If you’ve seen headlines saying home sales are slowing down, you may be wondering: is this really a good time to sell?
While the latest numbers show sales picked up slightly in September, they’re still down compared to last year. But here’s the perspective the headlines can miss.
Homes are still selling every single day. Because no matter what’s happening with mortgage rates or the economy, life keeps happening too. People get new jobs. Families grow. Relationships change. People retire, downsize, or need to move closer to the people they love.
And those life changes create buyers and sellers in every market.
Just Look at the Math
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), based on the current pace homeowners are expected to sell almost 4 million homes this year. Break that down, and that’s roughly:
11,000 homes every day.
450 homes every hour.
8 homes every minute.
So, yes, the market may be moving at a slower pace than it has at other points in time. But slower doesn’t mean it’s stopped. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com,says:
“Even in today’s high-price, high-rate market, homebuying activity around major life events, such as having kids, a job change, or a divorce, keeps the market in motion.”
Thousands of buyers are still making moves every day. The key is making sure your house is positioned to get their attention.
What That Means for Your Sale
Today’s buyers have more choices, so they can afford to be more selective about things like price and condition. That makes having the right strategy from the start especially important.
Because you don’t need every buyer to be looking for a home like yours. You just need the right one – and to know how to get in front of that buyer.
Bottom Line
Don’t let a headline about slowing home sales convince you no one is buying. Homes are still selling every minute of every day.
If you need or want to move, let’s talk about what it’ll take to make sure yours is one of them.
Mortgage rates being back above 7% isn’t exactly the news most people wanted. But it’s changing the market in ways that matter whether you’re buying or selling.
The number of homes for sale is growing faster than it was this time last year. And interestingly, the main reason isn’t a flood of new listings. It’s because homes aren’t selling as quickly.
Here’s why – and what that means if you’re thinking about buying or selling.
Inventory Growth Is Picking Up Steam
According to HousingWire Data, after inventory growth slowed down for most of the past year, it’s accelerated again in recent weeks. You can see that in the graph below. Just look at the blue line:
And what’s behind this shift might surprise you.
When rates rise, some buyers hit pause. That means fewer homes sell each week. And as those unsold homes stay on the market alongside new listings, the number available starts to grow (see the blue line in the graph below).
Here’s another way to look at it to make it even more obvious. The graph below shows the relationship between rates and inventory. Again, this year is the blue line. Last year? That’s the green.
With rates inching up this year, you can see inventory has grown by about 25k. But when rates went down this time last year, buyers jumped back in, and inventory actually dropped by about 9k.
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, explains how that’s flipped from 2025 to 2026:
“With mortgage rates over 7%, demand tends to soften and inventory rises . . .”
Homes Are Spending More Time on the Market
Here’s another metric that shows the impact rates are having: time on market. Data from Realtor.com shows the typical home spent 61 days on the market this September. Back in September 2021, it was just 41 days (see graph below):
Here’s what that tells us. In 2021, when rates were low, more buyers were active, and homes sold fast. But now that rates are a bit higher, not as many buyers are interested, so it takes a bit longer to close a deal.
How To Make This Market Work for You
So, what does all of this mean for your plans? That depends on which side of the move you’re on:
If you’re buying, more homes for sale means more choices and less pressure to rush. And more room to negotiate too. A house that’s been sitting for a while could have a seller who’s more willing to talk – not just about price, but repairs, closing costs, or even helping buy down your mortgage rate.
That doesn’t mean every seller will play ball. But compared to the frenzy of a few years ago, buyers have more leverage now.
If you’re selling, the right strategy can make all the difference. Buyers have more homes to choose from, so making yours stand out is especially important. That starts with pricing it right from day one, making a great first impression, and working with your agent to highlight what makes your house worth choosing. Buyers are still buying and homes are still selling. The key is making sure yours is positioned to attract the right buyer.
The market hasn’t stopped. It’s just moving at a different pace. And whether you’re buying or selling, your strategy needs to move with it.
Bottom Line
In many places right now, inventory is growing and homes are taking a bit longer to sell. And that’s information that should shape the strategy you use going in.
Whether you’re buying or selling, let’s look at how long homes are taking to sell in your neighborhood, so your offer, or your price, fits today’s market.
For a lot of first-time buyers, owning a home can feel perpetually a few years out of reach. Saving for a down payment takes time, and each year you spend renting can make owning feel further off.
But buying your first home doesn’t have to happen to feel like a far away goal. Two choices you control can bring your first home years closer, even with affordability as tight as it is right now.
How Long Buying Really Takes
First, one quick definition. “Breaking even” is the point where owning has cost you about the same as renting would have over the same period. And after that point, owning starts to cost less than renting. Kara Ng, Senior Economist at Zillow, puts it this way:
“Buyers should think about not just when they can afford to buy, but how long they’d need to stay before owning makes more financial sense than renting.“
So how long does reaching that point usually take? And what are the shortcuts? Let’s do the math.
According to Zillow, it usually takes about 8.5 years to save for a 20% down payment, then roughly 6.2 more years before owning costs the same as renting. Together, that’s just under 15 years. But that math relies on two assumptions: that you’re buying a mid-priced home, and that you’re putting 20% down.
Change either one and your timeline gets shorter. Change both and it can shrink fast. It also varies widely by market, since local prices and rents are different depending on where you live.
A Starter Home Can Get You There Twice as Fast
A starter home usually means a home in the lower third of local prices. They’re often condos, townhomes, or single-family homes a little smaller or older than others in the area.
Choosing one over a mid-priced home can cut your wait down by a lot. And while that might sound obvious, you may not realize just how much it shortens your timeline. Because if you’re buying a more affordable home, you don’t have to save up as much or as long.
Zillow found that nationwide, a starter home takes half the time – about 7.2 years – to save for and come out ahead on, compared with renting (see graph below):
That works out to about 4.6 years to save and 2.6 years to break even. It won’t erase every affordability challenge, but it can take years off the wait. And if you’ve already been saving for a while, it could get you closer to making it a reality.
You Usually Don’t Need To Put 20% Down
You, like many first-time homebuyers, might assume you need a 20% down payment to even consider buying. But a lot of the time, you don’t.
Most first-time buyers don’t put down anywhere near that. The National Association of Realtors shows the median down payment for first-time buyers is 10% (see graph below):
And the minimums go lower still. Some buyers put down as little as 3% on a conventional loan or 3.5% on an FHA loan, and eligible veterans or buyers in certain rural areas can put down nothing at all.
There’s help with the upfront costs of buying, too. Down Payment Resource counts 2,746 assistance programs nationwide, and some are even stackable:
“Some homebuyers can layer multiple sources of assistance to reduce their upfront costs. Layering means combining more than one eligible source of funding as part of your home purchase.”
Put those together – a lower price point, a smaller down payment, and help covering it – and the years you thought you needed start to come down.
Bottom Line
Your first home may not be as far off as it feels. When the numbers make sense for you, buying a starter home and putting down less than 20% can get you there years sooner.
Want to see which starter homes in our area could fit your budget? Let’s connect.
“With mortgage rates on their current trajectory, the housing market continues to be supported by favorable economic conditions,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
The 30-year FRM averaged 7.28% as of October 1, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 7.03%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.34%.
The 15-year FRM averaged 6.60%, up from last week when it averaged 6.42%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.55%.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
Half the buyers out there are scared home prices are about to crash. The other half are hoping they will.
A recent survey from Clever found 58% of Gen Z buyers are actually rooting for a crash, just so homeownership feels within reach.
So, what do the forecasts actually say?
Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing experts on where prices are headed. The newest results are in. And spoiler alert: they’re not calling for a crash – not even the pessimists.
What the Newest Numbers Actually Say
The panel’s latest forecast has prices climbing every single year through at least 2030.
The panel’s average forecast is that prices will rise by 14.7% in the next 5 years. And here’s where it gets really interesting. If you split these experts into optimists and pessimists, even the pessimists still expect prices to increase about 6.6% by the end of 2030 (see graph below):
The takeaway? If you’ve been waiting for prices to fall, you may be waiting a while.
One thing to keep in mind though – these are national numbers. Prices in your area could run a little hotter or a little cooler than this, so it helps to know what’s happening locally, too. But the big picture is prices aren’t crashing. Historically prices usually rise.
How This Quarter Compares to the Past
Here’s something you probably don’t realize. This survey runs 4 times every year, so you can track the panel’s mood over time.
A year ago, the panel expected home prices to grow 2.1% this year. Now they’re forecasting 2.5%. That means the near-term outlook actually got more optimistic. But that’s only part of the story. The years after that shifted, too (see graph below):
Zoom out to 2027 through 2029 and the mood has cooled a bit. Each of those years is now expected to see a little less growth than the panel thought a year ago. That’s likely a reflection of where we are right now with everything that’s impacting the housing market.
But again, the overall takeaway here is every bar shows an increase in prices – the size of that increase has just moderated due to some of the factors at play.
A slower climb isn’t a bad thing, though. It’s a sign the market is settling into a more normal pace after a few wild years.
A little more growth here, a little less growth there. What hasn’t budged once is the idea that home prices will keep growing.
What It Means for Your Next Move
Now, percentages are great, but you probably care more about the actual dollars and cents of your move, so let’s graph that out, too.
Run the numbers on a $400,000 home bought in January, and the panel’s latest forecast puts you up about $58,000 in equity in 5 years just from price growth (see graph below):
That’s real wealth you could be building while others sit on the sidelines, waiting for a crash the experts don’t see coming. And with prices expected to keep rising, waiting could mean paying more for the same home later.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the verdict is the same – prices are still expected to rise, not fall. Let’s talk about what that means for your market and your plans.
You may have seen the headlines saying mortgage rates have climbed to the highest point since January 2025. And if that’s left you reluctant to buy a home, here’s what you need to remember…
That’s not necessarily the number you’d get.
It’s a common misconception that the rate you see in the headlines is the same one you’d get when you buy. The truth is, mortgage rates shift often, and the rate you actually end up with can vary a lot from what you may see or hear about.
What Determines Your Real Rate?
Advertised rates and “real rates” aren’t always the same. That’s because real rates are based on your specific situation, which includes your overall finances and goals. The rates you see in the headlines can’t possibly reflect that.
That’s why only a lender can tell you what your real rate will be. To figure out your unique number, they’ll look at:
Your credit score: Your credit score includes your payment history (if you’ve made late payments – and how often), credit utilization (are your accounts maxed out, or do you have available credit?), and the length of your credit history (how long have your accounts been open?). For example, someone with an exceptional credit score may qualify for a better rate.
Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI): This is calculated by dividing your monthly debt payments by your monthly income before taxes to come up with a percentage. The higher your DTI, the higher your rate could be.
The down payment size and Loan-to-Value (LTV): Your down payment is the percentage of the home’s price you will put down. The LTV is the percentage of a home’s sales price that equals your mortgage.
The type and term of loan program options: Your loan officer will walk you through different loan options based on what you qualify for. Mortgage rates can vary between different loan products and programs.
Even after you find a home you love, other things can have an impact too. For example:
A mortgage rate buydown: This helps you get a lower mortgage rate, and by extension, a lower monthly payment, by paying an upfront cost. Sometimes a seller, builder, or another party may even offer to cover that cost themselves as an incentive for you to buy.
Seller concessions: Sellers are allowed to pay buyer closing costs according to most loan program guidelines. Seller-paid closing costs can add up to thousands of dollars, which can free up some cash for you to increase your down payment, pay down debt, or make other financial adjustments to try to get a better rate.
There’s a lot that can ultimately have an impact on your actual rate.
Your First Step? Getting Pre-Approved.
If you want to know if your number could be higher or lower than the headlines on social, you need to talk to an expert. A simple conversation with a loan officer can help you determine when you’ll be ready to buy, how much you can borrow, and of course, what your real rate will be.
Your lender may recommend a pre-qualification and pre-approval:
Pre-qualification is a general estimate of what you might be able to borrow based on self-reported information.
On the flip side, pre-approval is actually a conditional commitment from a lender based on verified information.
Just know that, of the two, the pre-approval process gives you a more accurate picture of your options than pre-qualification. Bankrate gives a quick comparison so you can see why:
How To Get Ready for the Conversation
Ask your lender what documents you’ll need to gather for that conversation. And keep these questions in your pocket too. They’re good things to go over when you talk:
What will I gain or lose by waiting to buy a home for 3, 6, or 12 months?
Will I get any tax advantages by buying a home – and what are they?
What’s the benefit of buying a home and starting to build equity now versus waiting? And how does that impact my finances in the long run?
How will rate changes in either direction affect me?
Once you find out your rate, maybe you can buy now. Or maybe you still need to wait. But at least you’d know your options and can make an informed decision.
Bottom Line
Headlines and social media make today’s rates sound high. But you have to remember, the rate you’re seeing online and your actual rate could be different. The only way to know what your rate could be is to talk to a trusted lender.
With the right help, you can find out what your real rate is – and where it can take you.
“The housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and an economy that is growing at a healthy rate,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
The 30-year FRM averaged 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.95%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.30%.
The 15-year FRM averaged 6.42%, up from last week when it averaged 6.26%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.49%.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
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