“Rates for the 30-year and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage essentially remained flat this week, but we did see purchase activity increase, which is encouraging,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
The 30-year FRM averaged 6.24% as of November 13, 2025, up from last week when it averaged 6.22%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.78%.
The 15-year FRM averaged 5.49%, down slightly from last week when it averaged 5.50%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.99%.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
A lot of buyers are stuck in “wait and see” mode right now. They’re watching rates hover a little above 6% and thinking, I’ll buy once they hit the 5s. Because who doesn’t want a better rate?
But here’s the thing: that 5.99% number might not save you as much as you think.
Affordability is still a challenge. There’s no question about that. But the market has given savvy buyers a head start. Mortgage rates have already come down over the past few months. And the drop we’ve seen saves you more than you’d think.
How Much You’ve Already Saved, Without Realizing It
Let’s put some real numbers to it. Rates peaked for the year in May when they inched above 7%. But since then, they’ve been slowly declining. Now, they’re sitting in the low 6s. And while that may not sound like a big deal, that change translates to real dollars.
According to data coming out of Redfin, the typical monthly payment on a $400,000 home is already down almost $400 since May.
That means if you’re buying a home now, you’re saving hundreds of dollars every month compared to what you would have been able to get earlier this spring. That’s real money that makes a real difference for buyers who paused their plans because they thought homeownership was out of reach.
And while it may be tempting to wait even longer to see bigger savings, that’s a gamble that could cost you. Here’s why.
Where Experts Say Rates Are Headed
For starters, most experts say mortgage rates are likely to stay pretty much where we are today throughout 2026. So, there’s no guarantee we’ll see a rate much lower than what we have now. Only one expert forecaster is saying rates could fall into the upper 5s next year (see graph below):
And even if rates do dip below 6%, the extra savings you’re holding out for won’t move the needle as much as you might expect.
The Real Math Behind a 5.99% Rate
Let’s break it down. If rates come down to 5.99% from where they’ve been lately that’s a difference of only about $80 a month on an average priced home – give or take a bit based on your price point and the rate your lender quotes you (see chart below):
Eighty dollars. That’s it. And for the typical family, that’s about one dinner out (or one dinner in, if you have it delivered). That’s not enough to change the game for most buyers. But the savings of nearly $400 we already have compared to when you paused your search in the spring? That might be.
So, the question to ask yourself is this:
Is an extra $80 savings really worth the wait?
Because while you’re holding out for that small dip, the bigger opportunity might be slipping away.
When Rates Fall, Competition Follows
Right now, you have more homes to choose from, sellers who are ready to negotiate to get a deal done, and fewer buyers to compete with. But once rates fall below 6%, buyer mindsets will shift and all of that will change.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that if rates hit 6%, about 5.5 million more households will be able to afford the median-priced home. Even if only a small fraction of them decide to buy, that could mean hundreds of thousands of buyers getting back into the market.
That creates more competition for you, which would push home prices even higher – maybe high enough to cancel out the extra savings you waited for.
So, if you’re waiting for rates below 6%, just keep in mind… that extra $80 may not be worth it in the grand scheme of things.
Bottom Line
You don’t have to wait for 5.99%. You have the chance to move (and save) right now. So, ask yourself: Would you let $80 hold you back from buying a home?
If you find a home you love and the math makes sense, getting ahead may be the best strategy. Let’s run your numbers so you can see what you’re working with in our market.
If it feels like you’re seeing new construction signs pop up everywhere, you’re not wrong. Builders have been busy. And it’s left some people wondering: Are we overbuilding like we did right before the 2008 housing crash?
No matter what you may hear in the news, there’s no reason for alarm. In reality, data shows builders aren’t racing ahead, they’re actually starting to tap the brakes.
Builders Are Pulling Back, Not Piling On
Permits (applications to start building new homes) are one of the best early indicators for what’s next for home construction. And right now, building permits are trending down, not up. Here’s why that’s so important.
In the years before the housing crash of 2008, builders really ramped up their production of single-family homes (the red arrow in the graph below). And unfortunately, they built far more homes than the market actually needed. That oversupply led to falling home prices. That’s what so many people remember, and what they worry will happen again.
But while construction has been picking back up since roughly 2012, we’re not headed for a repeat of the same mistakes. The latest data available shows builders are actually starting construction on fewer homes right now (the green arrow in the graph below):
New data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) confirms that trend. It shows that single-family building permits have fallen for eight straight months.
The Slowdown Isn’t Random, It’s Intentional
Basically, builders are watching and reacting to today’s economic conditions and buyer demand in real time. And they’re pumping the brakes on their pipelines to avoid getting caught with too much unsold inventory. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, says:
“. . . builders are still working through their backlog of inventory but are more cautious with new starts.”
That’s a big contrast to what happened before the housing crash, when overconfidence led to record-breaking levels of new home construction – even as demand was dropping. Today’s builders aren’t overconfident. They’re listening to the market and adjusting before things get out of balance.
The Regional Picture Tells the Same Story
And while inventory is going to vary a lot based on where you live, if you zoom out and look at regional data, the pattern holds almost everywhere (see graph below):
NAHB reports single-family permits are down in nearly every part of the country, with just one region showing a slight uptick. And even there, the growth is so small, it’s practically flat.
Why This Isn’t 2008 All Over Again
In the lead up to the crash, builders kept building long after demand had disappeared. This time, they’re slowing down early, and that’s a good thing.
The market actually needs more homes after years of underbuilding. But builders are making sure they don’t have to overcorrect. They’re being intentional about how many homes they’re building right now.
So yes, you’re seeing more new homes for sale today, but that doesn’t mean we’re oversupplied nationally. It means buyers finally have more options, and builders are pacing themselves to keep things in check. They’re not going to flood the market. And that’s a really good thing for housing overall.
Bottom Line
Seeing more new homes for sale doesn’t mean builders are overdoing it. Since building permits have been declining for eight straight months, it’s clear this isn’t an out-of-control boom. It’s a measured recovery.
If you want to know more about what builders are doing in our area, let’s connect.
If you’ve served in the military (or if your spouse has), you have access to one of the most powerful homebuying tools out there. The chance to buy a home without having a down payment.
Unfortunately, 70% of Veterans (that’s 7 out of every 10) don’t know about this benefit, according to Veterans United.
And that’s a big missed opportunity for those who’ve earned this benefit through service. So, let’s break down what you really need to know about Veterans Affairs (VA) home loans right now.
Why VA Home Loans Can Be a Great Option
For nearly 80 years, VA loans have made homeownership possible for millions of Veterans and active-duty service members. Here are just a few of the top perks according to the Department of Veteran Affairs:
Options for $0 Down Payment: Many Veterans can buy a home without spending years saving up.
Fewer Upfront Costs: The VA limits which types of closing costs Veterans have to pay, helping you keep more cash on hand when you’re finalizing your purchase.
No Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI): Unlike many other loan types, VA loans don’t require PMI, lowering your monthly costs.
These features make VA loans a great way for service members (or their family) to build stability, save money, and start creating long-term wealth through homeownership.
Can You Still Get a VA Loan with the Government Shutdown?
But lately, there’s been some confusion about whether VA loans are still available due to the government shutdown. And that uncertainty has kept some Veterans from taking the next step.
While there may be processing delays, Veterans United explains you can still get a loan:
“There’s been a lot of confusion and uncertainty about how a government shutdown will affect VA home loans . . . The good news is that the shutdown has minimal impacts on VA lending. Lenders are still able to order appraisals, obtain a borrower’s Certificate of Eligibility, submit the VA Funding Fee and more. In short, Veterans are still able to use their home loan benefit to buy a home or refinance an existing mortgage.”
So, despite the headlines, you can still use your VA home loan benefits today. The process is ready when you are. It just may take more time to go through.
Why the Right Agent and Lender Matter
Just remember, using your VA home loan is easier (and smoother) when you have the right team behind you. As VA News puts it:
“Choosing a military-friendly broker or agent who understands the VA home loan application process can make all the difference in the homebuying experience. Finding the right agency or brokerage is just as important as locking in a good VA mortgage lender. Communication is key to getting to the loan closing table.”
A knowledgeable agent and an experienced lender can help you navigate every step, all the way from qualifying to closing. With their help, you can make sure you’re getting the most out of your benefits.
Bottom Line
If you’re a Veteran, a VA home loan is one of the most valuable benefits you’ve earned through your service. It offers options for no down payment, limited closing costs, and more.
Want to learn more? Talk to a lender so you can take full advantage of the benefits you’ve earned.
“This week the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.22%. On a median-priced home, this could allow a homebuyer to save thousands annually compared to earlier this year, showing that affordability is slowly improving,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
The 30-year FRM averaged 6.22% as of November 6, 2025, up from last week when it averaged 6.17%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.79%.
The 15-year FRM averaged 5.50%, up from last week when it averaged 5.41%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.00%.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
There’s been a lot of talk lately about how a government shutdown impacts the housing market. You might be wondering: Is it causing everything to grind to a halt?
The short answer? No.
The housing market doesn’t stop. It keeps moving. Homes are still being bought and sold, contracts are still being signed, and closings are still happening. The difference is that a few parts of the process may slow down a little, but overall, the market continues to function.
Here’s What Typically Happens
Whenever the government shuts down, some federal agencies temporarily close or scale back their operations. That can cause a few hiccups in real estate, especially when it comes to processing certain types of government loans and insurance requirements:
“Applicants for FHA, VA, or USDA loans—which account for about one-quarter of all mortgage applications—may encounter significant processing delays due to agency furloughs.” – Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality
“By recent estimates, more than 2,500 mortgage originations per working day are at risk of delays during a shutdown . . .” – Zillow
Flood insurance approvals may also be paused. The National Flood Insurance Program can be temporarily affected, which delays closings in flood zones.
Even with those challenges and delays, most transactions still go through. Buyers keep buying, sellers keep selling, and agents keep helping people move forward.
The Housing Market Usually Bounces Back Fast
And you can see that play out in this data. If you look back at the most recent government shutdown that began at the end of 2018 and lasted for 35 days, sales activity dipped very slightly during the closure but picked right back up once the government reopened.
Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows existing home sales slowed for about two months, and then rebounded quickly as delayed closings worked their way through the system when the government reopened (see graph below):
What’s important to note is that the slowdown you see in the orange bars on this graph wasn’t simply due to seasonality in a typical housing market cycle. The sharper, shorter drop in this case lines up exactly with the 35-day government shutdown, and then sales bounced back as soon as it ended.
What This Means for You
If you’re in the middle of buying or selling a home, don’t panic. Most deals will still move forward, even if it takes a few extra days. Jeff Ostrowski, Housing Market Analyst at Bankrate, explains:
“If you’re expecting to close in a week or a month, there could be some slight delay, but I think for most people, it’s probably going to be a blip more than a real deal killer.”
And if you’re just starting to think about buying or selling, this could actually work in your favor. Some buyers and sellers may become cautious and pause their plans during times of uncertainty, like this, and that can open a short window of opportunity.
When fewer people are active in the market, well-prepared buyers may find less competition for homes, and motivated sellers may be more willing to negotiate. These brief slowdowns often create a moment where you can make a move that would be harder once activity ramps back up.
Bottom Line
A government shutdown can cause short-term delays for some buyers, but it doesn’t derail the housing market. The last time this happened, sales picked back up as soon as the government re-opened.
If you’re unsure how this might affect your plans, or just want to make sense of what’s happening, let’s connect.
“Mortgage rates continued to trend down this week, hitting their lowest level in over a year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “At the start of 2025, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassed 7%, while today it hovers nearly a full percentage point lower. This dynamic has kept refinancings high, accounting for more than half of all mortgage activity for the sixth consecutive week.”
The 30-year FRM averaged 6.19% as of October 23, 2025, down from last week when it averaged 6.27%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.54%.
The 15-year FRM averaged 5.44%, down from last week when it averaged 5.52%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.71%.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
“Mortgage rates inched down this week and have held relatively steady over the past several weeks,” said Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac. “Importantly, homeowners have noticed these consistently lower rates, driving an uptick in refinance activity. Combined with increased housing inventory and slower house price growth, these rates also are creating a more favorable environment for those looking to buy a home.”
The 30-year FRM averaged 6.27% as of October 16, 2025, down from last week when it averaged 6.30%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.44%.
The 15-year FRM averaged 5.52%, down from last week when it averaged 5.53%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.63%.
The PMMS® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.
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