You’ve probably noticed one thing if you’re thinking about making a move: the housing market feels a bit unpredictable right now. The truth is, from home prices to mortgage rates, we’re seeing more volatility – and it’s important to understand why.

At a high-level, let’s break down what’s happening and the best way to navigate it.

What’s Driving Today’s Market Volatility?

Factors like economic data, unemployment numbers, decisions coming out of the Federal Reserve (The Fed), and even the presidential election, are creating uncertainty right now – and uncertainty leads to market volatility.

You can see that when you look at what’s happening with mortgage rates. New economic reports and other geopolitical events have an impact and can cause sudden shifts up or down, even though experts still forecast rates will come down overall. We’ve seen that effect play out recently, like when employment and inflation data get released each month.

And as the markets react, these types of updates will continue to have an impact on rates moving forward. As Greg McBride, CFA, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says: 

“After steadily declining throughout the summer months, I expect more ups and downs to mortgage rates . . . Job market data will be closely watched as well as any clues from the Fed about the extent of upcoming interest rate cuts.”

This is exactly why the projected decline in mortgage rates isn’t going to be a straight line down over the next year. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains:

“Rates have shown considerable volatility lately, and may continue to do so . . . Overall, we still expect a downward long-term mortgage rate trend.”

Plus, home prices and the number of homes on the market vary dramatically depending on where you’re looking to buy or sell, which makes it even harder to get a clear picture. In some areas, home prices are rising and inventory is tight, while in others, there are more homes available and it’s leading to more moderate pricing shifts.

As all of this unfolds, understanding what’s happening will help you make the right decisions, whether that’s buying or selling. And there’s one easy way to get that information: from a professional.

The Importance of Partnering with a Pro

While the road ahead may have some bumps and unexpected turns, you don’t have to go it alone. A great agent will keep you up to date on the latest market developments, guide you through any shifts, and help you make smart decisions based on your goals.

For example, as mortgage rates change, professionals (like your agent and a trusted lender) will explain how the shifts impact what you can reasonably plan for in your monthly payment. This will help you see how even a small change in rates can impact your bottom line – that way you don’t lose sight of the big picture even as shifts happen here and there.

And since conditions can vary significantly from one neighborhood to another, your agent will also help you understand the specifics of your market—whether it’s how to navigate competition with other buyers, the number of homes available, or what’s happening with local home prices. Their insights and expertise will help you adapt to any movement in the market.

Bottom Line

The housing market may be experiencing some shifts, but don’t let it stop you from making your move. With the support of an experienced real estate agent and a trusted lender, you’ll be ready to navigate the changes and make the most of the opportunities that come your way.

Let’s turn any uncertainty into your advantage, helping you move forward with confidence.

Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today (10/31/2024) released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey^® (PMMS^®), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.72 percent.

“Increasing for the fifth consecutive week, mortgage rates reached their highest level since the beginning of August,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “With several potential inflection points happening over the next week, including the jobs report, the 2024 election, and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, we can expect mortgage rates to remain volatile. Although uncertainty will remain, it does appear mortgage rates are cresting, and we do not expect them to reach the highs that we saw earlier this year.”

• The 30-year FRM averaged 6.72 percent as of October 31, 2024, up from last week when it averaged 6.54 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 7.76 percent.
• The 15-year FRM averaged 5.99 percent, up from last week when it averaged 5.71 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 7.03 percent.

The PMMS^® is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who put 20 percent down and have excellent credit.

Feeling a bit unsure, or even afraid, to move with everything going on right now? The decision to move shouldn’t be scary, it should be exciting. And the best way to eliminate any fear is to work with a pro.

Real estate agents are so much more than just transaction facilitators; they’re trusted guides to help you navigate the complexities of the housing market with confidence and ease. And a great agent can turn what may feel like a daunting process into a manageable—and even enjoyable—experience.

That’s why, in a Bright MLS survey, respondents agreed partnering with an agent is essential and helps cut down on their stress:

Here are just a few examples of why that expertise can give you so much peace of mind.

1. Explaining the Current Market

You may be seeing misleading headlines about a potential market crash, falling prices, and more. And when you’re not an expert yourself, it’s easy to get swept up in the clickbait and let that scare you. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says:

“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”

A real estate agent is there to help you separate fact from fiction and to debunk any headline that does more to terrify than clarify. With their deep understanding of local market trends, home values, inventory levels, and more, they’ll help you feel more confident in your decision.

2. Walking You Through the Process Step-by-Step

Is this your first time going through the process as a buyer or a seller? Don’t worry. Your agent will walk you through every step along the way, from the initial conversation all the way to closing day. As NerdWallet explains:

“If it’s your first time buying — or selling — you’re likely to come across terms you don’t recognize and tasks that seem baffling. What’s the difference between pending and contingent? Why do you need title insurance? How thoroughly do you need to fill out disclosure forms? Your agent should be able to confidently and competently explain it all.”

And if you’ve done this before, but it’s been a while, an agent will tailor how they explain it all to your previous experience. They won’t bog you down with details, they’ll only give you as much of a refresher as you want and need.

 3. Advocating for Your Best Interests

Does the thought of dealing with the back and forth of the transaction make your palms sweaty? Put that anxiety aside. Your agent is a skilled negotiator trained for these exact scenarios. And the best part is, they work for you. So, it’s your goals they’re using that expertise to fight for.

They’ll work to secure the best possible terms for you, whether it’s getting a better price as a homebuyer or negotiating a higher sale price as a seller. This removes the fear of a bad deal or being taken advantage of during the process.

4. Solving Any Unexpected Problems Quickly

Worried something is going come up that you don’t know how to handle? Rest assured, your agent has you covered.

Agents are skilled problem-solvers. They not only address issues, but they get ahead of them before they become deal-breakers – and that helps keep the process on track. So, if any challenges do pop up, know your agent has the skills and experience necessary to find a solution that works for you.

Bottom Line

Don’t let fear or uncertainty hold you back from achieving your goals. Let’s connect so you can move forward with confidence.

With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.

Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown

In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below):

Why? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it’s particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market.

This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.

Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election

The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below):

That’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales.

What To Expect in 2025

If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below):

And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.

So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market.

Bottom Line

It’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.